Are Tuesdays Really Bad for the Stock Market?

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Are Tuesdays Really Bad for the Stock Market

Stock market enthusiasts and professional investors alike have long been fascinated by calendar effects—patterns in returns based on the day of the week. One such phenomenon is the so-called “Tuesday Effect,” a belief that Tuesdays are particularly unfavorable for stock market returns. But is this just market folklore, or is there statistical evidence to support the claim? In this blog post, we’ll dive deep into the research, examine historical and recent data, and give you actionable insights for your investment strategy in 2025.

What Is the Tuesday Effect in Stock Market?

The “Tuesday Effect” refers to the observed tendency for stock market returns to be lower—or even negative—on Tuesdays compared to other days of the week. This is a subset of the broader “Day-of-the-Week Effect,” a calendar anomaly where certain days consistently outperform or underperform others.

Historical Evidence: The Day-of-the-Week Effect

  • The day-of-the-week effect was first documented in the 1970s and 1980s.
  • Early studies observed that U.S. stock returns were often negative on Mondays and occasionally on Tuesdays, with Fridays generally showing positive returns.
  • Researchers speculated on reasons, including settlement periods, investor psychology, and institutional trading patterns.

Key Research Findings

  • Monday and Tuesday Underperformance: Historically, Mondays and Tuesdays have often seen lower or even negative returns.
  • Friday Outperformance: Fridays often delivered the best returns, possibly due to the optimism that comes with heading into the weekend.

Notable Studies

  • The academic literature, including studies published as recently as 2021, confirms that the day-of-the-week effect has been observed in various markets and periods.
  • However, the strength and consistency of these effects have diminished over time as markets have become more efficient.

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Recent Data: How Are Tuesdays Performing in 2025?

S&P 500 Day-by-Day Performance (2000–2025)

To answer the question for 2025, let’s look at the most recent data. According to a recent analysis updated through June 2025:

DayAverage Daily Return (%)Annualized Return (%)Win Rate (%)
Monday0.012.252
Tuesday0.024.053
Wednesday0.012.552
Thursday0.012.351
Friday0.035.154

Key Takeaways:

  • Contrary to old beliefs, Tuesdays have performed better than average in recent years.
  • Tuesday’s annualized return (4.0%) is close to the overall S&P 500 average and outperforms Mondays, Wednesdays, and Thursdays (Interactive Brokers).
  • The “bad Tuesday” effect has faded mainly in the modern, highly efficient market.

2025 YTD Data

  • In the first half of 2025, Tuesdays have outperformed Mondays and Wednesdays in the S&P 500, with a win rate (days with positive returns) of 54%.
  • Volatility remains similar across all weekdays, with no significant negative bias on Tuesdays.

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Why Might Tuesdays Be Different?

Theories Behind the Tuesday Effect

  • Weekend News Digest: Some believe that bad news accumulates over the weekend and is digested by investors on Monday and Tuesday, leading to early-week underperformance.
  • Investor Sentiment: Psychological factors, such as “Monday Blues,” can spill over into Tuesday, affecting trading behavior.
  • Market Mechanisms: Historically, settlement periods and institutional trading patterns contributed to calendar effects, but these have diminished with electronic trading.

Is There Still a Psychological Effect?

Recent behavioral finance research suggests that while mood and sentiment can affect individual stocks—especially those with high retail investor participation—the broad market is less susceptible to persistent day-of-the-week effects in 2025.

Are Tuesdays Really Bad for the Stock Market

S&P 500: Day-by-Day Performance Table

Here’s a more detailed comparison of average daily returns for the S&P 500 over the past 25 years (2000–2025):

Year RangeMondayTuesdayWednesdayThursdayFriday
2000–2005-0.03%0.00%0.02%0.01%0.05%
2006–2010-0.01%0.01%0.01%0.01%0.03%
2011–20150.01%0.02%0.01%0.01%0.03%
2016–20200.02%0.03%0.01%0.02%0.04%
2021–20250.01%0.02%0.01%0.01%0.03%

Observation:

  • The negative Tuesday effect seen in the early 2000s has disappeared.
  • In the most recent five-year period, Tuesday returns are positive and stable.

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Global Markets: Is the Tuesday Effect Universal?

International Evidence

  • Europe: Some European markets showed a Tuesday effect in the past, but recent studies (2020–2025) indicate no consistent pattern.
  • Asia: Japanese and Chinese markets have not exhibited a persistent Tuesday effect in the past decade.
  • Emerging Markets: Calendar effects, including the Tuesday effect, are less pronounced as these markets mature and globalize.

Table: Day-of-the-Week Returns in Selected Markets (2021–2025)

MarketMondayTuesdayWednesdayThursdayFriday
US (S&P 500)0.01%0.02%0.01%0.01%0.03%
UK (FTSE)0.00%0.01%0.01%0.01%0.02%
Japan (Nikkei)0.01%0.02%0.01%0.01%0.02%
China (CSI 300)0.01%0.01%0.01%0.01%0.02%

Investor Sentiment and the Tuesday Effect

The Role of Mood and Sentiment

  • Investor Mood: Studies suggest that mood contagion can influence trading, but its impact is more pronounced on individual stocks than on the overall market.
  • Retail vs. Institutional Investors: Retail investors are more prone to sentiment-driven trading, potentially causing more volatility in certain stocks on specific days.

Case Study: Meme Stocks

  • In recent years, meme stocks have exhibited greater day-to-day volatility, but no consistent negative effect on Tuesdays has been observed.

Should Investors Change Their Strategy?

  • Long-Term Perspective: Trying to time the market based on the day of the week is not supported by current data. Missing just a few of the best days can dramatically reduce long-term returns.
  • Market Efficiency: The day-of-the-week effect, including the Tuesday effect, has largely disappeared as markets have become more efficient.
  • Focus on Fundamentals: Investors should prioritize fundamentals, diversification, and long-term strategy over calendar anomalies.
  • Don’t Avoid Tuesdays: There’s no evidence to suggest that avoiding the market on Tuesdays will improve your returns in 2025.
  • Stay Invested: Consistency and time in the market are more important than trying to time the market.
  • Monitor Volatility: Although day-of-the-week effects are generally weak, monitoring volatility can still be beneficial for active traders.

Conclusion: Are Tuesdays Really Bad for the Stock Market?

  • The Tuesday Effect is more myth than reality in 2025.
  • Recent and historical data show that Tuesday returns are in line with or better than those of other weekdays.
  • Attempting to time the market based on the day of the week is not a sound investment strategy.
  • Focus on fundamentals, stay diversified, and avoid falling for calendar-based myths.

FAQs

Are Tuesdays statistically bad for stock market returns?

No, the most recent data (2021–2025) shows Tuesdays perform as well as, or better than, other weekdays.

Should I avoid trading or investing on Tuesdays?

There’s no evidence to support avoiding Tuesdays. Focus on your investment strategy, not the calendar.

Where did the Tuesday Effect come from?

It originated from studies in the 20th century but has faded as markets have become more efficient.

Do day-of-the-week effects still exist in any markets?

They are weak or nonexistent in major global markets as of 2025.

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